
Average lifetime risk for heart failure (HF) is high, but differs significantly across and within sex-race groups. No models for estimating long-term risk for HF exist, which would allow for earlier identification and interventions in high-risk subsets. The authors aim to derive 30-year HF risk equations. Adults between the ages of 20 to 59 years and free of cardiovascular disease at baseline from 5 population-based cohorts were included. Among 24,838 participants (55% women, 25% Black based on self-report), follow-up consisted of 599,551 person-years. Sex- and race-specific 30-year HF risk equations were derived and validated accounting for competing risk of non-HF death...
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