
The Million Hearts Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction Model provides financial incentives for practices to lower 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk for high-risk (ASCVD ≥30%) Medicare patients. To estimate average practice-level ASCVD risk reduction, optimal trial outcomes were applied to a real-world population with high ASCVD risk. In cardiology practices, about 1 out of 8 patients have a 10-year ASCVD risk ≥30% and qualify as high risk in the Million Hearts Model. If methods target the three main modifiable risk factors and achieve reductions similar to clinical trial results, ASCVD risk could be substantially lowered, and all practices could receive incentive payments. These findings support the potential benefit of the Million Hearts Model and guide participating practices.
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