Development and Validation of a Life Expectancy Calculator for U.S. Prostate Cancer Patients

Guidelines recommend that clinicians estimate patient life expectancy from other causes of mortality when making treatment decisions for prostate cancer. However, simple and accurate tools for estimating other‐cause life expectancy in men with prostate cancer are lacking. Therefore, the study aimed to develop and validate an accurate, usable prediction model for other‐cause mortality in patients with prostate cancer diagnosed in the United States. The 2,420 patient training cohort had 459 deaths over a median follow‐up of 8.8 years among survivors. The final model included 8 predictors: age, education, marital status, diabetes, hypertension, stroke, body mass index, and smoking. It had an AUC of 0.75 at 10 years for predicting other‐cause mortality in the validation cohort of 8,220 patients. The final model significantly outperformed the Social Security Administration life tables and showed adequate predictive performance across race, educational attainment, and marital status subgroups. There is evidence of major variability in life expectancy that is not captured by age, with life expectancy predictions differing by 10+ years among patients of the same age. Using two national cohorts, the study have developed and validated a simple and helpful prediction model for other‐cause mortality for patients with prostate cancer treated in the United States, which will allow for more personalized treatment in accordance with guidelines.