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The study aimed to determine how many times otolaryngology residents should be evaluated on key indicator procedures (KIPs) to ensure operative competence. Bayesian mixed effects models were used to estimate the probability of residents earning a "practice-ready" rating on subsequent evaluations based on their previous ratings for each KIP. The study found that predictive modeling can inform assessment benchmarks for competency-based surgical education. The results provide estimates of the number of prior ratings that senior residents need to attain to have a 95% probability of earning a PR rating on a subsequent evaluation for each KIP.
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