Markov Model Predicts Chronic Heart Failure Progression Accurately

In a cohort of 4,918 chronic HF patients, a four-state Markov model predicted transitions between states—hospitalization, rehospitalization, and death—with high accuracy over 5 years. Transition probabilities remained consistent, and adding clinical covariates did not improve predictions. The model estimated life expectancy at 10–13 years and observed 41% mortality at 5 years. This linear disease trajectory may guide more efficient patient care and system planning.